A Statistical Analysis on the Impact of Birth and Death Rates on Nigeria’s Economy. (a Case Study of Osun State)

Chapter One

Objectives of the study

1. To know if the economy can be predicted from the birth rate.
2. To know if there is a relationship between birth rate and the economy of Nigeria.
3. To know if there is a relationship between death rate and the economy of Nigeria.
4. To predict the economy of Nigeria using the birth and death rates.
5. To know the nature of the relationship that exists amongst birth rate, death rate and the economy of Nigeria.
6. To recommend ways of ensuring adequate documentation of birth and death rates.

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

THEORETICAL LITERATURE

The nature of the relationship between birth and death rates and economic growth has so attracted the attention of a large number of the world’s most influential thinkers that most of them have started propounding theories to explain the relationship. Generally the various explanations of the relationship between birth and death rates and the society have focused on the causes of population growth, the consequences of increase or decrease of birth and death rates, and the responses of people to birth and death rates. Most of the early writers on population growth were very much concerned with the need to balance population with resources.

According to Okafor (2004:84), population is a critical factor in the development plans of any civilized society. For effective planning for the development of developing countries, it is necessary to have an actual count of the population i.e. in form of an accurate census. This will enable government to know how many people to whom they should distribute amenities and social services.

According to Udabah (2002:59), it is a central problem of economic development. If the population of a nation expands as fast as national income, per capita income will not increase. When population expands rapidly, a country may by great effort raise the quantity of capital only to find that a corresponding rise in population has occurred so that the net effect of its “growth policy” is that larger populations now maintained at the original low standard of living. Much of the problem of developing nations like that of Nigeria is due to population growth or the increase in birth rate. Most developing nations have made appreciable gains in income, like Nigeria do in exporting crude, but most of the gains have been eaten up (literally) by the increasing population.

On the other hand, the early Roman Christians and Islamic writers were largely in favour of population growth without showing concern for the need to balance the number of people with available resources. This attitude was apparently influenced by high mortality, which characterized the period.

 THEORIES 0F POPULATION GROWTH/INCREASE IN BIRTH RATE

Most world thinkers or philosophers have in recent times been attracted by the nature of the relationship between birth and death rates and the socio economic system of a given geographical zone. This attraction gave rise to the postulation of so many theories of population. Among these theories, they can be classified into three classes or school of thoughts.

1. The pessimistic theorist (The Malthusian theory).
2. The optimistic theorist (Marxist theorist)
3. Liberal theorist.

 THE MALTHSIAN THEORY

Thomas Malthus was an English clergyman who lived from 1766-1834. He was widely known as the first professional demographer. It was during the period of the physiocrate thinking in the 18th century that he postulated his theory. He had the most influential work relating to population growth and its consequences. He was the first man to draw out in a systematic way a picture that links the consequence of growth to its causes. His theory of population growth can be broken into eight major points based on evolution.

1. Population level is severely limited by subsistence.
2. When the means of subsistence increases, population increases.
3. Population pressures stimulate increase in productivity.
4. Increase in productivity stimulates further population growth.
5. Since the productivity can never keep up with the potential of population growth for long, there must be strong checks on population to keep it in line with carrying capacity.
6. It is through individual cost/benefit decisions regarding sex, work, and children that population and production are expanded or contracted.
7. Checks will come into operation as population ex
   
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