Time Series Analysis on the Rate of Typhoid Fever Cases in Abia State From 2001-2010 (a Case Study of ABSUTH) Chapter One AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

 

The following are the aims and objectives of this study.

• To estimate the trend of the disease (typhoid fever) whether it is increasing or decreasing for this period of 2001-2010.
• To estimate the seasonal variation of the recorded cases of typhoid fever from 2001-2010.
• To predict rate of prevalent in future.

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

According to Chwatt (1985) he observed that the causes of typhoid fever include:

• Inadequate human waste treatment
• Limited water supply especially in the urban areas
• Over burdened health care system

Typhoid fever is also caused by s.typi bacteria.

On mode of transmission he said that the causative organism of typhoid fever has no host other than human being it can be transmitted through the following ways.

• Through contact with acutely infected person or              chronic carries.
• Direct contact from person to person through facial    oral route.
• Through eating or drinking contaminated food or water.
• Heath workers can contact, if after working on an infected person and through laboratory accident.
• Through easting shellfish that have been contaminated     by infected stools or urine.
• Through the ingestion of food or drink contaminated    by the faeces or urine of infected people.

Bain (19940) was of the opinion that the symptoms of typhoid  fever include;

• Abdominal pain which is estimated to 20-40%
• Fever up to 75% of patients has the following symptoms

Headache, Anorexia, cough, weakness, sore throat, Dizzines, muscle pains, Rash, Abdominal pain, malaise. Constipation or diarrhoea, rose-coloured sports on the chest and belly, Enlarge Spleen or liver, loss of appetite, Runny Nose, Nausea, Joint  pains, Nose bleeds, Vomiting, vision changes e.t.c.

In 1970, the use of plaused medicaled resistance was introduced because of the increased mortality rate associated with the former treatment and this is a non-antibiotic drug. Later, antibiotic drug which is ampicillic (induced to bone marrow toxity) being prescribed at 1lg orally every 6 hours trimethoprim-sul-fane thozagole (tmp-Smz) is also being prescribed at one table twice a day. In 1994, cephalosporios were recommended for empirical antibiotic treatment of susceptible strains and is being prescribed at 1-2g one or twice a day for ten days. A 5-7 day therapy is sufficient for uncomplicated cases. Quinotones  is antibiotics for multi-drug resistant infection mainly for styphi infections.

According to chwatt (1985) typhoid fever is a common world wide illness, transmitted by the ingestion of food or water contaminated with the faces of an infected person, which contain the bacterium salmonella enterica. This bacteria perforate through the intestinal wall and are phagocytosed by macrophages. Chwatt (1985) also discover that the sources of infection of typical fever include;

Water that is contraindicated with feces

– Milk and daily product, inadequate pasteurization or improper handing and contamination with feces

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CHAPTER THREE

DATA COLLECTION

SOURCES OF DATA

The data used in this research work is purely secondary data, collected from the medical record department of Abia start university teaching hospital  from the monthly number of patients treated on typhoid fever.

METHOD OF DATA ANALYSIS

The statistical tool employed in this work is the series analysis using the Buys-Ballot procedure to assess the trend and hypothesis test about  β will be employed to test if there is significant  increase or decrease on the number 2001-2010.

Simple linear regression was also used to test if there is significant correlation on the rate of people that was effected by typhoid fever from 2011-2010.

CHAPTER FOUR

  DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

ANALYSIS OF DATA

This chapter deals with the complete decomposition of time series component using buys-ballot method, estimate of trend of the disease from 2001-2010, prediction for the future occurrence of typhoid fever disease for 2011-2012.

CHAPTER FIVE

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